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Data analysis

German day-ahead market analysis

An analysis of what drove German day-ahead prices up between June 2020 and June 2021.

Median price rose from 26 to 76 €/MWh, explained through residual load, the merit-order effect, and gas and CO₂ prices.

Code
Distribution of day-ahead electricity prices by hour of the day

An analysis of German day-ahead prices comparing June 2020 with June 2021.

Approach

  • Combined consumption, generation-by-source and day-ahead price data into one hourly dataset.
  • Analysed hourly, daily and weekly patterns, including a time-of-day classification (night, morning/evening, midday).
  • Compared price distributions (kernel density, box plots) and the generation mix across the two periods.

Finding

The median price rose from 26 to 76 €/MWh. The rise is explained by residual load and the merit-order effect, together with higher gas and CO₂ prices.